Pac-10 situation (first strike at Colorado?)

[M]

The first actual action in this whole realignment mess (as opposed to all these rumors/speculation) will likely be the Pac-10 inviting the most viable candidate: Colorado.

Since Colorado's chancellor has already considered this plan, they seem highly likely to accept:
(http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_14393700)
Colorado has much stronger ties to the west coast than to the Big XII, with roughly twice as many alumni in Pac-10 territory than the current Big XII, save Colorado of course.

I think that the new group of Pac-10 leaders is determined to take action. Furthermore, Colorado was already invited once in 1994. While Colorado as a football power has decreased since that point, Colorado as a market has substantially increased. While a rejection on the Pac-10 side could happen because of any number of eclectic reasons due to their requirement for unanimity, if anyone can receive approval, it's Colorado.

The Pac-10 is also under a fairly strict deadline as their television negotiations begin this summer:
www.buffzone.com/ci_14415579
"[Colorado AD] Bohn said because the Big 12 requires a two-year notice to leave and the Pac-10 is about to begin negotiations for a new television contract that would begin in two years for the 2012 football season, he believes any movement on expansion or conference realignments will come this summer."

Note that the Colorado AD has looked into this enough to know when the Pac-10 television deal is up.

[Richard]

So you do think they'll take a 12th school or just go as the Pac-11 for a while?

[M]

The only strong reason for a 12th school is a conference championship game. For the Pac-10, there isn't a central location and the fanbases are not overly inclined to travel. I would think that the conference has a risk of an ACC situation, so there is not a strong pressure to take a 12th member, especially since there is not a particularly great choice.

[OT]

The Pac-10 men's basketball tournament in 2010 was a disaster from an attendance perspective.

Even with the CBS cameras positioned so that the upper deck of the Staples Center was not visible, there were still way too many empty seats on camera.

The lower bowl was at best half full for the final.

==

One would imagine that the Pac-10 football championship game, if it were held in Los Angeles Coliseum and the game were to feature Oregon vs Arizona for example, would end up being played in front of thousands of empty seats.

[OT]

Mar 13, 2010 22:37:55 GMT -6 @Richard said:

So you do think they'll take a 12th school or just go as the Pac-11 for a while?

If USC were to jump to the Big Ten (as the 16th member after Rutgers, Texas, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame), then the Pac-10 will still be the Pac-10 after admitting Colorado, but the Pac-10 will actually earn LESS TV money.

The USC brand had carried Pac-10 football for the past decade.

[OT]

The Pac-10 currently generates about $60 million per yar in TV revenue.

The Pac-10 believes that it can get a new TV deal for $100 million per year if it does not expand (though the cold reception the ACC is getting from ESPN, Inc. may change that assumption), but the 10 Pac-10 schools allegedly want $15 million per year each.

That means the Pac-10 will have to generate $180 million per year in TV revenue in order to justify expanding to 12 schools.

I don't see any scenario where the Pac-10 can get a $180 million per year TV deal unless Texas were willing to forego the big money being offered by the Big Ten. Even if Texas were willing to listen to the Pac-10, Texas would want even more unequal revenue sharing than the current Pac-10 revenue-sharing formula.

Even with "geography" protecting much of the Pac-10 from being raided, there will be a tipping point where the likes of USC will finally conclude that it has had enough and would be willing to jump to the Big Ten as the 16th member and the lone west coast member.

[darvon]

The normal price on a football conference is $20M. If p10 cant do that what are they expanding for?

Adding 2 more teams won't sweeten the TV deal that much, will it? Would Colorado bring the Denver market?

[OT]

Mar 14, 2010 15:18:06 GMT -6 darvon said:

The normal price on a football conference is $20M. If p10 cant do that what are they expanding for?

Adding 2 more teams won't sweeten the TV deal that much, will it? Would Colorado bring the Denver market?

I just don't see Pac-10 expansion bringing in the money the 10 schools are looking for given the current market conditions.

That is the primary reason why USC is vulnerable to be poached if the Big Ten decides to go to 16 schools and grab the top 5 TV markets.

[micahandme]

Where did this "USC to the Big 10" craziness come from? Was there an article I missed?