Thoughts from ESPN Big East Blog on Expansion

[Frank the Tank]

Brian Bennett, who writes the Big East blog for ESPN.com, had a few thoughts on how the Big Ten's expansion plans could affect the Big East:

espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/8433/big-east-friday-mailbag-5

[Penn State Danny]

Frank

Thanks for devoting so much time to the topic. I totally agree that your followers are civil and smart. Things naturally get too emotional on the team pages of scout or rivals.

A couple of questions: Is there a 27 month rule of notifying the BE about leaving the conference? If so, would the end of THIS month be a deadline in order to have a new set up in 2012?

Also, I am a math teacher so I want a number: What percentage chance is there of 3 teams being added if the teams are ND and 2 of the 3 main BE teams (Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt)

This is where I think things are going. I think the most interesting part is which of these 3 schools is left out.

Between conference realignment and the health care bill, March of 2010 may be the most pivotal month in a long time...

[M]

I'll take a shot at that.

I would say that there is about a 60% chance of any expansion, with a 10% chance of ND coming to the conference.

If ND is joining, I do not think that the Big Ten would feel any need to add any Big East school. I would put your scenario at <1%.

[Penn State Danny]

M

Here's why I disagree with you. IF the Big Ten were to get Notre Dame, the BE will have to be dealt a severe blow.

I don't think Notre Dame comes by themselves. Their current deal is too good. But if the BE conference ceases to exist, then ND is more vulnerable.

We shall see...

[theta]

I think if the Big 10 takes 1 from the Big 12 and 1 from the Big East it will open up Texas and A&M. If the Big 10 has Texas, A&M, Nebraska and Rutgers wouldn't ND be insane not to be the 16th team? Wouldn't they love to play in and recruit Texas?

[duffman]

frank.. this was closer to the edit abilities i spoke about in an earlier post

everybody else.. this is just a test to see if this posts correctly..

[duffman]

penn state danny....

i would like to see the numbers across the board for each conference..

a) what is the deadline to notify of moving conference status?
b) what is the penalty.. financial or other if this deadline is not met?

PSD & M....

maybe break it down in percentage on size of expansion

ie..

a) big 10 goes to 12
b) big 10 goes to 14
c) big 10 goes to 16
d) big 10 goes beyond 16

[M]

Mar 13, 2010 16:53:15 GMT -6 @Penn State Danny said:

M

Here's why I disagree with you. IF the Big Ten were to get Notre Dame, the BE will have to be dealt a severe blow.

I don't think Notre Dame comes by themselves. Their current deal is too good. But if the BE conference ceases to exist, then ND is more vulnerable.

We shall see...

Here's why I disagree with you. The Big Ten is not going to start adding random schools in the hope it destabilizes one conference or another. The only 14-school conference setup that makes sense is if Texas/A&M are a package deal.

Look at it from ND's perspective: would they rather be in a 12-school conference or a 14-school? Do they have any ties at all to Syracuse/Rutgers/Pitt?

If you are insisting on using some sort of "leverage" against ND, there could be phone call to ND saying "We're adding you or Rutgers tomorrow, you pick."

[M]

Mar 13, 2010 18:55:19 GMT -6 @duffman said:

penn state danny....

i would like to see the numbers across the board for each conference..

a) what is the deadline to notify of moving conference status?
b) what is the penalty.. financial or other if this deadline is not met?

PSD & M....

maybe break it down in percentage on size of expansion

ie..

a) big 10 goes to 12
b) big 10 goes to 14
c) big 10 goes to 16
d) big 10 goes beyond 16

As far as deadlines/penalties, for the Big XII the school forfeits half the money for two years, or all the money for 1 year. Basically theres no reason to let anyone know earlier than 1 year as the school loses a year of television money anyway. For the Big East, I know there is a $5 million leaving cost, but I don't know what the timelines are.

As far as percentages, my wildly speculative guess would be:

1 school-
I would say 30%, with the most likely being Rutgers, ND, Missouri, Nebraska, or Pitt.

3 schools-
This is whatever you think the odds of Texas joining and bringing A&M along with them. I'll go 10%.

5 schools-
This is whatever the odds of the Texas scenario followed by UF and USC specifically petitioning the Big Ten to join. .1%? .001%? (This isn't happening).

>5 schools
0.

[Richard]

Mar 13, 2010 20:05:37 GMT -6 @M said:

Look at it from ND's perspective: would they rather be in a 12-school conference or a 14-school? Do they have any ties at all to Syracuse/Rutgers/Pitt?

Actually, yes, Pitt is a rival (though not a key one). As for 12 vs. 14, I think ND would still like to play around the country and have a big following on the East Coast (huge Catholic population in the Northeast). I think pulling in the 2 Texas schools, the 2 Florida schools, or even 2 East Coast schools (or 2 pairs) would induce ND more to join. In any case, though, getting ND only makes sense as part of an Eastern strategy to put the BTN on basic in all the Mid-Atlantic and New England states.

[Frank the Tank]

My current percentages:

35% - no expansion
40% - Big Ten adds Notre Dame, Syracuse and Rutgers
10% - Big Ten adds Texas, Texas A&M and Rutgers
10% - Big Ten adds Texas, Texas A&M and Notre Dame
5% - Big Ten adds Rutgers alone

A week ago, I would've had the Texas scenarios higher up, but the combo of the anecdotal comments from UT's president and Jack Swarbrick basically saying that if the Big East gets killed, then ND will join a conference, has vaulted the 14-school "JoePa Dream Conference" into the lead. It's amazing how my thinking has changed on this. I was 99% sure back in December that the Big Ten was simply looking for the perfect 12th member. I'm still convinced that expansion is going to require ND or Texas, though, and it appears that both are going to require a multiple school expansion. There's a very slight chance that the Big Ten will take the path of least resistance and simply add Rutgers, but I highly doubt it.

[Penn State Danny]

Frank

Thanks. I bascially agree except I think that expansion is definitely going to take place. If you divvy out that 35 per cent chance of no expansion, then I think you are on the mark.

It is interesting to me how many of us Penn State fans are following you closely.

Ironically, expansion won't affect PSU all that much. We will still have weak non conference schedules most years. We will still play 2-3 quality confernce teams. Rutgers or Syracuse would be our homecoming game most year.

[pat]

If Notre Dame joins the Big Ten Rutgers won't be needed because ND grabs the NJ and NYC markets. Also, western fringe teams like Iowa and Minnesota might not like the over-emphasis on eastern teams. More likely ND, Syracuse and either Missouri/Nebraska.