I'm leaning towards 16 team super conferences

[psu2433]

FranktheTank: Let me first and foremost thank you for your insightful thoughts and the passion you bring to college football. I share the same passion for college football as you and have been pro-playoff for 10+ years.

After reading all of your blogs, I am leaning towards the Big10 being the first conference to go BIG and form a 16 team super conference. Money is power and right now the Big10 has a whole lot of both. At the end of the day, I think the Big 10 goes for a Grand Slam and invites TEX,TAM,ND,SYR, & RU. I think they start with the Texas Two Step and then proceed to lock up the NorthEast. In order to lock up 5 teams, they have to produce at a minimum, $110 million for the BigEleven to break even. Well, these 5 teams all but lock up the 8mil HHs of Texas and 15mil HHs of NY & NJ for the BTN. I also believe the BTN could command MORE than the $.70-$.80 they are currently getting from Comcast. I think this would push them over the $1.10 range per HH. One could also argue, with the national presense of ND,TEX,PSU,OSU, & UM that this now becomes a National Conference.

So how is scheduling going to work. I am a huge fan of the 4 POD system with 9 conference games. At this point, all the money is in the conference so the more conference games the more money. I am sick of watching OSU-Akron & PSU-Little Sisters of the Poor so I think the conference maximizes the amount of games. Here is how I see it playing out.

East Pod: PSU, RU, SYR, ND
South Pod: TEX, TAM, PUR, IND
West Pod: WIS, IOWA, MINN, NW
North Pod: UM, MSU, OSU, ILL

Each team plays their pod every year. You play one other pod for 2 consecutive years and that pod is on your side of the confernece for the championship game. You also play 2 other teams from another POD for 2 years. This creates a balanced schedule over a 12 year period where you play your POD 12 times (6H/6A) and you play every other team 6 times (3H/3A). The conference alignment would change every 2 years for the conference championship game. It would look like this

Years 1-2
East/West vs. North/South
Years 3-4
East/South vs. North/West
Years5-6
East/North vs. South/West
Years 7-8
East/West vs. North/South
Years 9-10
East/South vs. North/West
Years 11-12
East/North vs South/West

A sample schedule looks like this. I'll use Penn State as the example.

Year 1: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ WIS, IOWA, @ MINN, NW, OSU, @ MSU
Year 2; @syr, RU, @ ND, WIS, @ IOWA, MINN, @ NW, @ OSU, MSU
Year 3: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ TEX, TAM, @ IND, PUR, @um, ILL
Year 4: @syr, RU, @ ND, TEX, @ TAM, IND, @ PUR, UM, @ill
Year 5: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ OSU, UM, @ MSU, ILL, @tex, IND
Year 6: @syr, RU, @ ND, OSU, @ UM, MSU, @ ILL, TEX, @ind
Year 7: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ WIS, IOWA, @ MINN, NW, @tam, PUR
Year 8: @syr, RU, @ ND, WIS, @ IOWA, MINN, @ NW, @ OSU, MSU
year 9: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ TEX, TAM, @ IND, PUR, @wis, IOWA
Year 10: @syr, RU, @ ND, TEX, @ TAM, IND, @ PUR, WIS, @iowa
Year 11: SYR, @ RU, ND, @ OSU, UM, @ MSU, ILL, @minn, NW
Year 12: @syr, RU, @ ND, OSU, @ UM, MSU, @ ILL, MINN, @ NW

Conference championship games held from Dallas, Chicago, Indy, Cinncinati, & NYC.

For basketball 18 conference games stay the same, you play your pod home/away (6 games) and everyone else once (12) games. Championship tounrneys in Indy, CHI, NYC, & Houston.

I haven't run the numbers yet, but I think a conference this size could command $600-$800mil /year with an outside shot of $1bil if the BTN can go national.

I've got my sports goggles on here but all 5 fit the academic mold the conference is looking for as well. The weak link is SYR (I'd be open to MD as well) but SYR with RU & ND all but locks up NYC & NJ.
Am I nuts? Hopefully this dream will turn into a reality.

[psu2433]

Year 8 Schedule should look like this

Year 8: @syr, RU, @nd, WIS, @iowa, MINN, @nw, TAM, @ PUR

[cardfan]

I believe Texas president is on "record" as saying they aren't going to the Big 10.

[Nittany Wit]

There is the innuendo made by Texas that they aren't going with Texas Tech either...If it goes to a 16 team conference, this seems reasonable that the Texas politicians would push to keep them together. This would also make a southern quad consisting of Texas, A&M, Tech and possibly ND. However, I don't think the Big Ten would or could swing all three.

If the Big10 will go to 16, I think it would be logical to offer 3 teams to 14 to put everyone on notice. Then picking teams 15 and 16 will be much easier. The likelihood of Texas or ND joining first to get the ball rolling is about at 0.0%. Trying to get all five teams in one fell swoop is nearly impossible, because both ND and Texas will need to convince alums, politicians, and others that they must react to this shift. In that case, it is much much easier for the BigTen to bring them on board.

To get the ball rolling, I think the BigTen should focus on Rutgers, Missouri, and Nebraska. Taking Missouri and Nebraska decimates the Big12 North and likely causes Colorado to approach the Pac10. In this scenario, the Big 12 south must start planning. That makes it much easier for Texas to leave since the Big 12 won't be able to seriously renegiotate a TV contract or to find two or three schools to replace Nebraska, Missouri and or Colorado. The Big Ten will be positioned as the richest conference at that point so it will be easier to negotiate with the remaining Big12 schools.

Offering Rutgers at the same time, puts the Big East in a precarious position to be pecked by the major conferences. Lost one FB team means they don't have enough teams to likely retain a BCS tie. At this point, Texas, ND, and everyone else sits up and takes notice. So then the Big Ten could focus on Texas/ND, Texas/A&M, ND/Pitt, Syr./Pitt or even to try and pull Maryland or BC from the ACC.

My preference at this point is to go with three....Rutgers for NY market, Nebraska, and either Syracuse or Missouri. There isn't as much reason to have ND if we have Rutgers for location, Nebraska for Tradition/national appeal, and missouri/syracuse for basketball. Then we could make a push later down the road for eastern teams (maryland/UVA), texas (Texas and A&M).

[TheBlanton]

1. Big 10 fires the first shot. Inviting Texas and Notre Dame. Big 10 knows that even if they only land one, they will be in position to stage a CCG.

2. Texas, already having a contingency plan in place demands that A&M be included. Notre Dame stalls and goes to committee. Big 10 gives an ultimatum which ND ignores. After 6 months, ND’s spot is offered to A&M. Texas and A&M are brought into the new big 12. Cable rates increase across the board.

3. The Big XII moves quickly. Because there is no love lost between the old Big 8 and the Texas schools, they find UT and A&M easy to replace. Wanting to maintain the Texas market as Big 12 country, the Big 12 offers TCU and Houston. This has already been worked out between Big 12 officials and Texas Legislators in a secret room inside Jerry’s Stadium scoreboard. Now instead of 4 BCS conference schools, Texas has 6. New Big 12 cable channel is formed with revenue sharing. Again cable rates increasre.

4. The Pac 10 tries to lure Colorado and Utah. Utah jumps at the chance but Colorado, sensing new balance in the Big 12, rejects the Pac 10 to stay with its old big 8 cohorts. Pac 10 is left reeling, after some time a vote is brought up on BYU. Stanford and Cal vote no, Pac 10 is stuck at 11 members. In a desperate move, Pac 10 forms a B division, with the promise that if they show growth, they may join the original 10 in a full capacity. San Diego State, Fresno State, Nevada, San Jose St, New Mexico St, BoiseSt, Colorado St, and Utah form the B division. A conference championship game is scheduled between the A and B division. If the B division team wins they are immediately considered for inclusion in the A division by simple majority vote. Cable rates stay surprisingly unchanged.

5. The Big XII, sensing the weakness of the MWC and the WAC, decides to shoot the moon and go to a 16 team conference. Rice, New Mexico, UNLV, and BYU are offered and jump at the chance to join a big time conference. The B12 is immediately split into two new divisions, with Oklahoma and OK st, joining the Big 8 division (former Big 12 North). The 5 Texas schools join the western schools for the Southwest Division.

6. The remaining MWC and WAC merge.

7. The Big 10, not to be outdone decides to go for a 16 team league. The reformed Big 8 gets a much better deal from the newly formed TV station that covers the new Big 8-Southwest Conference, closing them off to Big 10 expansion. Big 10 decides to make a play for the NY market and grab Syracuse and Rutgers from The Big East. One final offer is given to ND, assimilate or die. Pittsburgh is holding a standby ticket. Cable rates increase.

8. ND finally capitulates, joining the Big 10+6. Cable rates increase.

9. The Big East is crumbling. The basketball only schools break off and pick up a few regional catholic universities.

10. Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Conn, and Cincinnati Join The ACC based largely on their basketball revenue. ACC forms it’s own TV Channel. Cable rates increase during basketball season.

11. By this time SEC TV deal is on the horizon. They move to add Louisville and South Florida, and expand their market by adding SMU in Texas and Tulsa in Oklahoma. They form their own Cable channel. Cable rates are so high now that people are forced to work for the cable company full time in order to receive service.

12. Conference USA merges with the Sunbelt Conference.

After everything shakes out there are now 5 super conferences. Big 10+, Big 8-SW, Pac 10+, ACC, and SEC each have 16 teams. The MWAC and Sunbelt USA conference have some undetermined number of inconsequential schools.

The Cotton Bowl is revived as a BCS bowl In JerryWorld, making 5 BCS bowls.

The plus one system is added making the National Championship game during the bye week before the Superbowl, it rotates every year between the BCS sites. The winner is chosen by taking the two highest ranked teams after the bowls.

Every Mega conference is offered 2 BCS Bowl bids. 1 for the CCG winner, and an at large. However, the 2 BCS bids max is removed and any Mega Conference can steal any number of at-large bids as long as the team stealing the bid is ranked higher than the at-large team from the other conference.

In addition, the smaller conferences can steal an at large bid as long as they are ranked higher than the at large and any other 3rd team from a mega -conference.

Conference Alignment:

Big 10+

(West)- Texas, A&M, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana
(East)- Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, Mich. St, Syracuse, Rutgers, ND, Purdue

Big 8/SW

(8) -Nebraska, Oklahoma, OK St, Kansas, Kansas St, Missouri, Iowa St, Colorado
(SW)- Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Rice, Houston, New Mexico, BYU, UNLV

Pac 10+

(A)- Wash, Wash St, Oregon, Oregon St, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Az, Az st
(B)- Utah, Nevada, Boise St., San Diego St, San Jose St, Fresno St, New Mexico St, Colorado St

ACC

(North) – BC, Pitt, Uconn, W Virginia, Cincy, Maryland, Virginia, VaTech
(South) – Wake, NC, NCst, Duke, Clemson, GeorgiaTech, FSU, Miami

SEC
(east) –
GA , Tenn, Vandy, Kentucky, Louisville, South Carolina, Florida, South Florida
(west) – Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Miss St, Arkansas, SMU, Tulsa

So there it is. I have now wasted half of my Saturday. Please start picking apart my suggestion, really I was just writing it to get it out of my head and on paper. I think this lasts about 50 years until greater global forces (crumbling economy, fuel shortage, Armageddon) force a need for smaller more compact conferences, probably 8 10 school conferences or 10 8 school conferences…. Discuss amongst yourselves.

[theta]

I agree Nittany Wit that getting Texas or ND will be easier once the Big 10 has destroyed the Big East and Big 12.

I say announce the Big 10 is in expansion talks with Nebraska, Missouri, Syracuse and Rutgers with the plan to take 3. The Big East and Big 12 commissioners head's explode. Now is much more politically/publicly acceptable for Texas, A&M and ND to talk publically about the situation and what the options are. Hopefully this is discussed beforehand to a certain extent with the intended targets and give them a heads up. Now if Texas, A&M & ND are on board you can discuss the particulars and which of the 2 others from Nebraska, Missouri, Syracuse & Rutgers will get the 2 spots and how to let the dominoes fall.

[theta]

I'm a Texas alum and the talk of bringing Texas Tech or a denial that Texas would join the Big 10 is for local politician and Big 12 consumption. No one really thinks Texas would care about Tech, only A&M. Texas will just pretend the care about everyone until they announce they are leaving the Big 12. Texas needs an excuse to leave and wants the appearance they don't want to leave. If Texas leaves the Big 12 they are basically taking a shotgun and blowing the Big 12's head off.

Another thing about Texas. We have options. The PAC 10 would love to have us and Texas will use that to its advantage to extract extra benefits from the Big 10. And I believe we would get some. For instance: there is a penalty to leave the Big 12, would the Big 10 be interested is paying all or some of that - say a signing bonus? PAC 10 might be. Texas probably doesn't want many road games way up north in November, well take those in September when it is blistering hot in Austin. The Conference Championship game in Texas every... 3 years?, 4 years? Jerry's World in Dallas, Reliant Stadium in Houston.

[micahandme]

Mar 13, 2010 15:07:31 GMT -6 theta said:

I'm a Texas alum and the talk of bringing Texas Tech or a denial that Texas would join the Big 10 is for local politician and Big 12 consumption. No one really thinks Texas would care about Tech, only A&M. Texas will just pretend the care about everyone until they announce they are leaving the Big 12. Texas needs an excuse to leave and wants the appearance they don't want to leave. If Texas leaves the Big 12 they are basically taking a shotgun and blowing the Big 12's head off.

Another thing about Texas. We have options. The PAC 10 would love to have us and Texas will use that to its advantage to extract extra benefits from the Big 10. And I believe we would get some. For instance: there is a penalty to leave the Big 12, would the Big 10 be interested is paying all or some of that - say a signing bonus? PAC 10 might be. Texas probably doesn't want many road games way up north in November, well take those in September when it is blistering hot in Austin. The Conference Championship game in Texas every... 3 years?, 4 years? Jerry's World in Dallas, Reliant Stadium in Houston.

You are right that Texas has options. But you are wrong in thinking that you can bargain between the PAC10 and Big 10. The PAC10 would have to offer everything to get Texas (and even then Texas might not make out as well financially as they would in the Big 10) and that would involve swallowing a LOT of pride. The Big 10, on the other hand, could offer Texas much more than they currently have by simply allowing them in on equal footing with other conference members. Joining the PAC10 would be a long-term investment/risk that Texas and aTm would need to embrace. The Big 10 would pay immediate dividends.

As for "concessions", no, the Big 10 will not be paying Texas's way out of the Big 12. They may, however, allow the CCG to take place in Texas every other year (or maybe every third). They may even allow for a few specialized "syndicated" Texas-themed shows on the Big 10 Network once it gets picked up by the state of Texas.

If Texas wants someone to make piddling concessions as basis for joining the conference, an apt analogy would be demanding a dowry from your future wife. Tina Fey is willing to pay for you; Heidi Klum is not. You may get your dowry, but then who are you stuck with for the rest of your life?

[psu2433]

Who knows what politicians can do to expansion, we alrady know they are looking into anti-trust regulations on the BCS. But my hope with the movement of TEX,TAM,RU,ND & SYR to the Big10 will create the PAC 10, ACC & SEC to expand to 16 as well.

ACC adds: PITT, UCONN,USF, UL
SEC adds: OK,OK ST,TT,WVU
Pac10 adds; CU,UTAH, MO,NEB, KU, KSU
Outside looking in : Baylor, Iowa St, Cincinnati
Each Conference creates the POD system:

ACC:
MIA, FSU, USF, GT
VT, UVA, UCONN, BC
DUKE, UNC, NC ST, MD
PITT, UL,CLEM, WAKE
SEC:
OK, OK ST, TT, ARK
LSU, USC, KY, WVU
FLA, TENN, GA, VANDY
MISS, OLE MISS, ALA, AUB
PAC10:
NEB, MO, KSU, KU
USC, UCLA, STAN, CAL
UW,WSU, ORE, ORE ST
CU, UTAH, AZ, AZ ST


How about a Final 4 in College Football?

[M]

Mar 13, 2010 15:07:31 GMT -6 theta said:

I'm a Texas alum and the talk of bringing Texas Tech or a denial that Texas would join the Big 10 is for local politician and Big 12 consumption. No one really thinks Texas would care about Tech, only A&M. Texas will just pretend the care about everyone until they announce they are leaving the Big 12. Texas needs an excuse to leave and wants the appearance they don't want to leave. If Texas leaves the Big 12 they are basically taking a shotgun and blowing the Big 12's head off.

Another thing about Texas. We have options. The PAC 10 would love to have us and Texas will use that to its advantage to extract extra benefits from the Big 10. And I believe we would get some. For instance: there is a penalty to leave the Big 12, would the Big 10 be interested is paying all or some of that - say a signing bonus? PAC 10 might be. Texas probably doesn't want many road games way up north in November, well take those in September when it is blistering hot in Austin. The Conference Championship game in Texas every... 3 years?, 4 years? Jerry's World in Dallas, Reliant Stadium in Houston.

This point has been beaten to death, but here's the relative tv money:
Big Ten: $242 million ($22 million per school)
SEC: $205 million ($17.08 million per school)
Big 12: $78 million ($6.5 million per school)
ACC: $67 million ($5.58 million per school)
Pac-10: $58 million ($5.8 million per school)
Big East: $13 million for football/$20 million for basketball ($2.8 million per football school)

I have no doubt that Texas would increase the tv money of the Pac-10 substantially (and that they would be welcomed into the conference), but to keep Texas at its current take would require about 1/5th of the current Pac-10 money.

The "helping with the exit fee" is probably more reasonable. While I cannot see the Big Ten doing this for one of the Big East castaways, for Texas it could happen. From what I've seen the exit penalty is effectively one year of conference money (50% a year for two years). Everyone in the conference would recoup the "investment" the first year Texas plays.

The CCG location I suppose could be negotiable on a rotating basis. The problem is this: suppose Texas and A&M join and agree to have the CCG at Jerry World once every 7 years. What happens if that year, its Wisconsin vs Penn State?

[theta]

micahandme & M, I agree. I'm a Texas fan and I want Texas to go to the Big 10 not the PAC 10. While I think its a no-brainer, many Texas fans do not and like the PAC 10 idea better. Clearly our President is talking up some "Western" conference concept as well. I'm just saying some sweeteners might be needed and I'm sure Texas will ask for a few. We're not Rutgers after all, we're #1 on Frank's expansion index for a reason. Texas creates so much $$$ we practically carry the Big 12. ;D

[joe4psu]

Wow! So many great ideas and scenarios.

I'm in the camp that believes that ND can be forced to make a move if the B10 adds two schools. That could be Rutgers and Syracuse, Rutgers and Mizzou or Rutgers and Nebraska. Any combination that cuts the number of open spots available for ND makes them think long and hard. I believe it will be Rutgers and Syracuse but it definitely isn't clear yet.

I think that getting Texas into the B10 on the other hand is more dependent on other changes in the B12 and P10. With the P10 saying that they are looking to expand to 12 schools and the possibility that any number of B12 schools could end up in the B10 the B12 has to be wary of it's options for it's own expansion, or even survival.

The P10 in my opinion has the biggest problem as far as expanding beyond 12 schools. There just aren't that many schools out west that the P10 would consider. The two most discussed so far are Colorado and Utah. Great. Then what? If Texas won't join the P10 maybe they can work out something with BYU despite the cultural differences and that would be 13 schools. How many other B12 schools would the P10 consider? Are there any WAC or MWC schools left that the P10 would consider?

Even if the P10 would consider TCU they likely would prefer to be involved with any remnants of the B12/MWC/WAC. Unfortunately for Boise St., they are the WVU of the west. They have a good program with a rabid fan base but these schools academics will keep them out of the P10, and for WVU it may not only keep them out of the B10 but the ACC as well.

With these things going on the ACC and SEC are going to expand as well. The ACC I see going after BE schools, I don't think that any SEC schools are going to leave the SEC for the ACC. The ACC gets UConn and Pitt for 14. The ACC would also be a good place for Syracuse or Rutgers if they aren't in the B10.

The SEC could offer Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Then there's Texas A&M. If they aren't in the B10 or P10 they are definitely going to want into the SEC. There is no way that Texas joins the SEC because of academics so that is out. Besides the other 3 schools maybe the SEC looks at WVU, Miami and FSU.

Anyway, my dream Big Ten would be would be the current schools:

PSU
OSU
UM
MSU
Iowa
Wiscy
Minny
NW
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue

and the addition of:

ND
Rutgers
Syracuse
Texas
aTm or Nebraska

I can't include Pitt as much as I'd like to because it just makes no sense knowing what the B10 wants financially.

[duffman]

a) look at the history.. if push came to shove.. i think you need to look at acc and sec combinations.. 1) they were originally in the old southern conference together 2) sec in football added to acc in basketball 3) ESPN history with acc early on , and recent contract with sec would foster such a union to protect their "historic" turf.

b) if pac 10, big 10, and sec raid big 12.. they would die, not survive

c) if sec and acc pick 16 best between them.. look for the leftovers to combine with the big east to form the final 4 conference (big ?? + pac ?? + sec/acc + major leftovers)

d) i agree UK to big 10 is unlikely, but not impossible - especially in light of a sec/acc merger.. you have to look at 16 teams in a footprint - UK and Maryland would be the "edges" in distance from such a combination.. and UK's long term "historic" rival is IU in the big 10. the UK vs UL is a very new rivalry.. and UK would consider MSU in big 10 a more "equal" rival than UL in football and basketball. and if frank's original article about academics is correct, UK is well on their top 20 in 20 path.. plus they are a large state school, like most in big 10.

e) i agree - jerryworld reforms the cotton bowl to top bowl

f) i agree with one of franks original concepts .. that 11+1 = 13, but you need to apply that to the sec as well, with the stable of football teams, and the $$ - they will be one of the first to go to 16 - and they will pick up better schools than UofL and USF. in most of these posts i think people keep underestimating the sec in protecting their revenue streams.

g) i may be the fool.. but you want a smart wife.. so you take fey over klum.. look at many in forbes 400 that are self made.. many with the "smart" wives and not the "pretty" ones

h) i still think the texas/A&M find a home in pac ?? if the big 12 dissolves

[duffman]

as for those who do not see UK as a valuable franchise..

from ESPN....

"As a coach you owe it to them to give them your best," Calipari said. "They tell me 180,000 fans came to Nashville. Is that true? Kentucky fans. And only 17,000 could get in the building. ... It's unbelievable. The blue dust is everywhere. It's incredible."

anybody who has never seen this, i have.. UK travels.. in volume.. even for a sucky football team.. in a minor bowl in football..

[Richard]

Mar 13, 2010 20:10:03 GMT -6 @duffman said:

as for those who do not see UK as a valuable franchise..

from ESPN....

"As a coach you owe it to them to give them your best," Calipari said. "They tell me 180,000 fans came to Nashville. Is that true? Kentucky fans. And only 17,000 could get in the building. ... It's unbelievable. The blue dust is everywhere. It's incredible."

anybody who has never seen this, i have.. UK travels.. in volume.. even for a sucky football team.. in a minor bowl in football..

To be sure, they were only travelling a couple of hours south. It'll be interesting to see how many fans they'd bring to a bowl game in Florida or Texas.